8 2020.04.23 2024.03.09 2024.03.10 article Mario Ljubičić (Amenoum)108. brigade ZNG 43, 35252 Sibinj, Croatiamljubicic99{EAT}gmail.com Experiments on the predictability of seismic activity. physics complete relativity, earthquakes homo.β https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4959065 /authors/Amenoum.html#credits Experiments on seismic activity Abstract A possible earthquake predictor found in an experiment involving graphite particles in carbonated water. Intro Can earthquakes be predicted? According to Complete Relativity (CR), everything is relatively predictable. The question is, can an observer, as limited as humans, predict earthquakes and how far ahead? I argue that this is possible. One way is subconscious precognition, which, as evidence suggests, certainly exists, however, this is obviously limited to specific subspecies and individuals of species, and in humans may not be reliable. But other ways may be possible, and a potential way was discovered while I was making experiments unrelated to seismic activity. Experimentum: Sensus fidelium An earthquake of 4.0 Richter magnitude occurred at my location (epicenter distance < 15 km) 3 days after measurements started. A week later, another earthquake of magnitude 3.0 occurred. After subsequent analysis of measurements, a possible correlation with increased seismic activity was discovered. Setup:
  1. Carbonated mineral water poured into a glass jar,
  2. Residue from pencil sharpening (mostly fine graphite particles) added to the solution (on top, no stirring),
  3. Jar lid closed.
Methodology, observation and measurements The observation covers a period of 2 weeks in the month of June 2018., multiple jars with carbonated water containing various ion concentrations at room temperature. Observed phenomena: At the start of the experiment, carbonated water was poured into a glass jar, graphite particles were added on top and the lid was closed. Due to significant initial CO2 bubbling, measurements were only taken after there was no visible CO2 evaporation. The solution was sporadically inspected for activity, which, once detected, was continuously monitored with a pair of healthy eyes, and measured using common ruler and a digital stopwatch. Measured and deduced quantities include: period, velocity, amplitude, frequency. Measurements started on 2018.06.04 and the experiment ended on 2018.06.18. During measurements weather was calm (no lightning strikes).
solutioneventevent startevent endduration [h:m]T [s]sz [cm]f [Hz]λe [m]
M0M0-12018.06.04 13:152018.06.04 13:360:214010.02513720
MM-12018.06.14 15:152018.06.14 16:151:0011.25.10.0892857143841.6
DD-12018.06.15 15:202018.06.15 16:201:00604.90.01666666720580
MM-22018.06.16 16:302018.06.16 17:000:30365.20.02777777812348
Table 1: Measurements of sinusoidal activity
Details of first four measurements are shown in Table 1. Also shown is the calculated wavelength of a sound wave in air corresponding to measured frequency f: $\displaystyle {\lambda}_e = {c_s \over f}$ cs = speed of sound in air at 20°C = 343 m/s Uncertainty in period (T) measurement: ±0.5 s. Measurements of amplitude hint at possible discreteness in value - measured vertical component (sz) was concentrated around 1, 5, 8 and 8.5 cm, while horizontal components were generally not significant and were not measured. Two earthquakes occurred during the experiment, as shown in Table 2.
eventdatemagnitude (Richter)depth [km]coordinates [°]distance [m]sources
SB12018.06.07 08:454.0445.3 N, 18 E13890a, b, c
SB32018.06.14 00:493.0-45.27 N 17.9 E8770d, e
Table 2: Data on earthquakes occurred during the experiment (also showing distance of epicenter to experiment location)
Analysis and hypothesis Graphite is hydrophobic and a good electrical conductor. The mechanics might be explained through binding (adsorption) of ions (Na+, K+, ..) on graphite surface and interaction of the system with CO2 evaporation. A vertical difference in electric potential is generated in the solution due to affinity for positive ion enrichment on graphite surface - cation-π interaction. This might cause or accelerate the downward movement of bound particles. At some point the CO2 bubble propels the system upwards, without breaking the bond (note that the bubble at the time of measurements was usually not visible, but it is hypothesized to be there based on observation when CO2 bubbling was visible). Near the surface, the bubble is detached or fragmented, released CO2 evaporates and the process repeats. Thus, the activity stops with the exhaustion of CO2, or when evaporation pressure becomes lower than electric field pressure. Although the events seem to be correlated with CO2 evaporation, conservation of frequency, amplitude (regular sinusoidal oscillation), duration of stable oscillation and observed angular deflection in some events might indicate detection of low frequency EM waves and a possible response to fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field. In most of such stable long lived oscillations particles did not reach the surface at any point, but some that did reach the surface did not immediately go down although the oscillation frequency remained consistent - this cutoff in amplitude strongly suggests EM wave absorption (otherwise the particle would go down as soon as CO2 is released, not pulled down couple of moments later). If kinetic energy is the result of EM wave absorption, the frequency of the wave could be equal to, or correlate with, the cyclotron resonance frequency of the carbon system (carbon is present in both graphite and CO2). Note that low frequency EM waves in the range 0.01 - 0.5 Hz were previously observed before strong earthquakes. Cyclotron resonance frequency (fc) of a carbon atom (ion) in a magnetic field 1000 times weaker than Earth's magnetic field at the location of the experiment, for a single ion, is equal to the average value of measured frequencies: $\displaystyle f_c = {{z q B} \over {2 \pi m}} = {1 \over 1000} {{z q B_e} \over {2 \pi m_c}} = 0.05\, Hz$ z = number of charges = 1
q = 1.60217733 * 10-19 C
Be = 42 μT
mc = carbon atom mass = 1.992646547 * 10-26 kg
Note that the above does not imply that carbon ions are involved, rather that carbon mass dominates. where Be is the dominant (vertical) component (D-U) of Earth's magnetic field strength at the location (45.189917 °N, 17.916138 °E, 127m elevation) at the time of experiment. For the horizontal N-S component of the magnetic field (Be = 23 μT), the frequency is 0.03 Hz (which is even equal to one of the measured frequencies in the experiment). Note that a field resulting in the measured average frequency (for z/m = 1/mc) is 42 nT - magnetic pulses of such magnitude have been previously observed before earthquakes, and associated with geophysical semiconductor processes. However, it is unlikely that the system is resonating with such pulses due to much longer duration. I do not know what is the actual z/m ratio in the oscillating system of these particles but I did observe the bubble changing in size during oscillation (at times when the bubble was visible). It is thus not only possible that the system is resonating during a long lived disturbance in Earth's magnetic field, but even a stable Earth's magnetic field - in the following way:
The signal M0-1 is the only one measured before the SB1 earthquake. Interestingly, wavelength of a wave traveling at the speed of sound (in air) λe at measured frequency of M0-1 is almost equal to SB1 epicenter distance. Also interesting is that speed of diffusion of electrical disturbances (positively charged holes) through rocks (100 - 200 m/s) due to broken peroxy bonds (postulated as a source of mentioned magnetic pulses detected before earthquakes) equal to 100 m/s gives a wavelength exactly equal to hypocenter depth (4 km). The signal may thus be interpreted as an electric wave traveling vertically from the hypocenter to surface and emission of a sound wave of the same frequency upon reaching the surface. This would require: Due to above requirements, I find this interpretation unlikely. But I do not believe in coincidence either: Thus, I interpret this as a typical event of synchronicity, a sign(al) that M0-1 has the earthquake precursor characteristics and that it was indeed the precursor to SB1.
The oscillation may be a consequence of changes in both mass and the magnetic field (B/m ratio), although, changes in magnetic field strength associated with earthquakes are usually very subtle. If correlation of sinusoidal activity with seismic activity is confirmed with further testing, this could turn into an inexpensive solution for earthquake prediction. On the other hand, I have elsewhere hypothesized that the location experiences occasional increases in radiation flux (based on multiple evidence, eg. detected increased incidence of bitflip events in computer memory). It is possible that the magnetic field strength is at times and for short periods significantly decreased at this location (or, any location equally correlated with the magnetic field lines associated with the phenomenon, assuming radiation has cosmic origin). This then may or may not be correlated with seismic activity. I have also hypothesized that magnetic excursion (if not reversal) will occur this century. This will include fragmentation of the global surface magnetic dipole. Perhaps what I am witnessing here is a precursor to establishment of a local dipole. Follow up experiments Exp. 2020/01 The experiment was repeated with a single jar of carbonated mineral water, almost two years later (2020.05.06 - 2020.05.15), at the same location. The peculiar motion was detected again, but it was slower and no regular long lived sinusoidal oscillation was observed.
I am unsure of the sensitivity of the instrument. The 5.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 200 km away (in Zagreb) on 2020.03.22 which was also felt at the experiment location. The ground in Zagreb was still seismically active when the experiment was actually performed (2 months later) - around the time of the experiment the earthquakes of magnitude 2 - 3 were occurring in Zagreb. This goes in favor of hypothesis of correlation of seismic activity with the oscillation, which was now, as the activity, weaker.
Interestingly, at times the particles would align and remain suspended along a particular plane:
Carbon alignment
Fig. 1: Plane alignment of graphite particles
Such alignment is shown on Fig. 1, where particles are aligned in a plane 15° from horizontal. The alignment was not sudden and was long lived, although possible rotation of the plane was observed couple of hours later (not all particles remained on the plane). As can be seen on Fig. 1, the particles were either along the plane or at the surface, confirming polarization of submerged particles - as hypothesized before. Exp. 2020/02 Experiment performed 2020.07.30 - 2020.08.05. No activity. Other 2 additional experiments performed.. I have performed 2 more experiments, one in August, other in September. There was no activity. The last experiment was not finished though as the glass jar got broken.
2020.09.05

I occasionally play with a soccer ball outside, often together with my son and often with the doors of the house left open. I have these glass jars in the house for a couple of years now, and the ball must have entered the house perhaps a hundred times during that time. Nothing was ever broken, until now, when the ball got inside, bounced and somehow smashed the glass jar on the shelf. Since the jar was broken during the experiment, I have interpreted it as a signal for me. But what is the correct interpretation? From my experience, such signals always have a meaning in future, so I can rule out the possibility that doing all these experiments was wrong. I will not speculate about the interpretation now (from experience, that should become clear later), but I believe I have to stop trying to predict earthquakes.

2020.09.06

The interpretation is clear to me now. It was never my intention to predict earthquakes. I believe in karma, therefor I have no interest in such predictions. The purpose of these experiments was to lead me to cyclotron resonance (and I have learned some other stuff in the process). The purpose of the signal must have been to remind me of that. I will thus cease doing experiments on seismic activity.
Article revised. Article revised.