Intro updated.
Intro
According to the theory of planetary neurogenesis - hypothesized
in The Solar System: Nature and Mechanics and discussed in my
other works, major mass extinctions (including the current one) should be accompanied by (or relatively synchronized with) increased global seismicity and volcanism.
While the current global climate changes may have an anthropogenic trigger (even including seismicity to a degree), I argue that this should be interpreted as a precursor to bigger changes
beyond human control. Also, the anthropogenic trigger is a relative trigger and probably should not be interpreted as an unnatural phenomenon, rather correlated with ongoing changes (in one
interpretation, trigger may be naturally induced).
Here, available data will be analysed for signs of predicted increase in seismicity and volcanism, which can be interpreted as confirmation of the upcoming bigger changes.
While humans often consider themselves separate from, or even above, nature, everything in nature is interconnected and we do form a part of Earth's ecosystem. Therefore, even though most
of us may not be aware of it, we, as species, could be used to trigger specific changes in this ecosystem. While we might often think we are disturbing the
ecosystem, Earth's self-regulation could be correlated with human action. I argue that, for this self-regulation it is the effect that matters, while the cause is less relevant. In example, wars (especially
nuclear) can produce effects very similar to volcanic eruptions. It would not be surprising then that, at time of great wars, there is some attenuation of volcanic activity that would produce
similar effects (synchronization here should be relative though - some phase shift could exist). Here, data will be analysed for hints of this phenomenon as well.
Sometimes, as major extinctions suggest, the self-regulation [of the surface ecosystem] is disrupted. While we might interpret this as something undesirable, the theory implies that
relatively periodic major extinctions are necessary for the long-term development and well-being of the planet. Obviously, humans can have a role in this as well. Note that, in such
special cases, multiple pathways to a particular effect may be utilized simultaneously - rather than one attenuating the other, all could be increasing and possibly even reinforcing each
other (eg. relatively simultaneous increase in both, volcanism and wars).
Human factor
According to the Gaia hypothesis, Earth is a self-regulating complex system involving the biosphere, the atmosphere, the hydrospheres and the pedosphere (outermost layer of the Earth - soil
mantle), tightly coupled as an evolving system.
Although its weaker forms are accepted today, the hypothesis that biota obeys a principle working to make Earth optimal or favourable for life, or that it works as a homeostatic mechanism, is
still not generally accepted.
However, this can be resolved with a more holistic approach - as the theory of planetary neurogenesis implies, the Earth should be analysed as a living being, a self-regulating complex system
involving not only the outermost layers but all its constituent mass.
In such system, not all of biota is working in favour of the whole (certainly, humans in general are apparently negatively affecting surface ecosystem sustainability) - some may be acting as diseases, disrupting its self-regulation.
This system is, however, still in development, and may be interpreted as a precursor of a living being. Disruption of self-regulation is thus expected also in major formation and biomass
transfer and transformation events - such as that correlated with surface extinctions.
Humans may be interpreted as cancer but cancer is also known to stimulate neurogenesis events and is highly correlated with embryogenesis, therefore, any increase in seismicity and volcanism
attributed to humans could be interpreted as a precursor to (or a trigger of) stronger seismicity and volcanism associated with planetary neurogenesis.
During standard embryogenesis (on our scale), a relative equivalent of cancer is regularly developed but it doesn't spiral out of control. Since our embryonic development is apparently
a lossy compressed evolution, most likely, sometime during past evolution, cancer was tamed or domesticated, and incorporated as part of the organism of our far ancestor. This can even be
interpreted as intentional cultivation of cancer (on some level) to benefit the host. I argue that evolution of humans on the surface of the Earth is qualitatively equivalent to this development.
Evidence
Earthquakes
According to available data, there is no apparent global increase in earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 6, as shown in Fig. \fig1 (up to year 2017), and any apparent increase of earthquakes of
lower magnitude is explained with increase in seismic instruments recording earthquakes.
Fig. \fig1: Cumulative annual number of stronger earthquakes (top) and colour-coded time-magnitude distribution
However, there is a significant recent increase in earthquakes of lower magnitude, attributed to human activity (generally up to M4, but even stronger magnitudes may be induced), as shown
in Fig. \fig2, for US. These are mostly linked to wastewater injection in deep disposal wells by oil industries.
Fig. \fig2: Cumulative number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or larger in the central and eastern United States, 1973–2020
Are these the precursors (or triggers from one perspective) of stronger earthquakes?
The increase in number of stronger earthquakes may be already happening, albeit limited to particular region - again, as a precursor to global increase.
Indeed, one candidate for that region is the country of Croatia, which I have already hypothesized to be the precursor region elsewhere. Data shows increasing
frequency of strong earthquakes in Croatia since 1890 when most recent earthquakes are included.
If Croatia is indeed the precursor region, the tipping point has likely passed and further development of neurogenesis events is unstoppable.
The mechanism
The logic may be there and the link may be implied by the theory, but what is the mechanism linking human induced earthquakes (in US or elsewhere) with recent strong earthquakes in Croatia, and linking precursor earthquakes
in Croatia with global seismicity?
One possibility is resonance induced amplification - tremors produced by humans are producing pressure waves of specific frequencies. A resonance at specific places in Earth would accumulate
energy (eg. thermal expansion) which upon reaching a threshold could trigger another chain of events, including stronger earthquakes.
The link does not have to be direct, however. Climate change, for example, can be linked with stronger earthquakes.
Increased solar
activity has been linked to stronger earthquakes, with a likely explanation in reverse piezoelectricity. Therefore, decreasing magnetic field strength (allowing higher proton flux near the
ground) should correlate with higher seismicity as well. Mechanisms behind increasing seismicity may be diverse.
One of my hypotheses is that Earth is also a large scale quantum system, or at least a quasi-quantum system. Entanglement of events in time (correlation of past and future, no absolute
causation), and superposition should be evident on this scale as well. I have hypothesized elsewhere that evolution
on Earth is, to a significant degree, guided through mental pathways (I also hypothesize elsewhere that mental symbiosis of beings, such as in biofilms, is a precursor to
a DNA coded organism), and the code linking the phenomena is thus hidden in time dimension. It is not yet spatially encoded in, what would be, large scale DNA sequences, as it is on small scale in
individual quanta of evolution (ie. pulses of individual biotic life).
Evolutions on adjacent vertical scales of energy, postulated in Complete Relativity (CR), are
entangled.
According to CR, to conserve relativity, relatively equivalent natural processes must occur at different scales of energy (generally separated in time, but connected through channels of
entanglement on a 3rd scale), so this is simply how nature works. One cannot be aware of all mechanisms on all scales at all times - as evident in Quantum Mechanics (QM).
One can perform many experiments on small scale and confirm many effects predicted by QM - but, one obviously cannot prove planetary neurogenesis in similar way. But should that be a reason to
ignore the predicted effect on large scale?
Apart from logic, analysis of past events and current events on Earth are all that is available as evidence on Earth's scale - if the theory is correct, this civilization, as it is, has only one
chance to accept whatever is available as evidence.
I am not suggesting one to rely on faith, I'm merely suggesting it would be foolish to discard the available evidence because it cannot be further confirmed by growing and destroying
billion Earths billion times in an [bio]accelerator.
Volcanoes
Similar to earthquakes, the volcanism is apparently increasing globally but this has been so far correlated with population growth and largely explained with increasing probability for volcanic
eruptions to be observed and documented - suggesting the apparent increase is not real.
Fig. \fig3: Number of volcanoes reported to have been active each year (black) and a 10-year running mean (red), from year 1800 to 2009. Lower lines show only stronger eruptions (≥ 0.1 km3 of tephra or magma)
The lower plot of Fig. \fig3 is interpreted as a strong evidence that the historical trend in volcanism is not real. Here only the larger eruptions generating at
least 0.1 km3 of tephra (VEI ≥ 4), the fragmental products of explosive eruptions, are plotted. The effects of these larger events are often regional, and therefore less likely to
escape documentation even in remote areas.
Tephra is fragmental material produced by a volcanic eruption regardless of composition, fragment size, or emplacement mechanism.
The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is a scale that describes the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on magnitude and intensity. The numerical scale (from 0 to 8) is a logarithmic
scale, and is generally analogous to the Richter and other magnitude scales for the size of earthquakes.
However, when the most
recent data (1991 - 2021) is included, increase in stronger volcanism is evident too, as shown in Fig. \fig4.
Fig. \fig4: Number of strong volcanoes (VEI ≥ 4) reported to have been active each year (black) and a 10-year running mean (red), from year 1800 to 2021 (1800-1990 data source: Volcanoes of the World)
Correlation with wars
As shown in Fig. \fig3, there is a drop in reported active volcanoes during world-wide wars (WW I and WW II in the figure). The drop is apparent, but considered not real, explained by the
priority in focus and documentation. During wars, documentation of volcanic eruptions has lower priority and some may be unreported, even though, with more observers in more remote areas
during wars, more eruptions may be observed.
But, how confident can one be that the drop is not real at all?
If the Earth is a self-regulating system, the drop in volcanism may be, at least in part, real and more deeply correlated with wars.
Both, wars and volcanism, can be associated with extreme destruction of structures and biomass. Sometimes, the military goal is to eliminate forest cover. For example, in Vietnam, 14-44 % of
the forest was intentionally eliminated during the war, crops
have been attacked in Syria, protected areas were set alight in Israel, etc.
Greenhouse gas emissions and ash pollution are increased during the war, followed by the quiet period due to destroyed economy/biomass and then growth with rebuilding. This is equivalent to
processes during and after volcanic eruptions.
If deep correlation exists, drop in volcanic activity may even precede the world war. The very recent drop of activity, as shown in Fig. \fig4, might thus indicate the World War III is upon us. The
recently started war in Ukraine goes in favour of that hypothesis.
Furthermore, the year before the war (2021) was extremely quiet regarding volcanic activity of higher power, no events of VEI ≥ 3 were reported. The last time this has happened was in year 1927, just before
the stock market collapse (1929) and ensuing Great Depression - when drop in volcanic activity was also recorded.
This suggests a great stock market collapse and another great depression in or about the year 2023.
Small update in Correlation with wars.
Update in Correlation with wars.
UPDATE 2023.01.23
It seems reports on volcanic eruptions have a significant lag (up to a year or more) at the source used so the data for year 2021 was incomplete at the time I processed it. Now, 3 eruptions with
a VEI ≥ 3 are reported for year 2021. Still, unusually low number of VEI 3 volcanic eruptions (1), which was last reported 30 years ago, in 1993. In any case, the signal for the upcoming great
depression is now lower (which doesn't mean there won't be one, note that the date of a beginning of a year is arbitrary, while the interval of one year in this context is the same for Earth as for us, the start
of the year may be not - some phase shift may exist). The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai VEI 5 eruption has been reported for the same year even though the eruption (that started on
December 20, 2021) reached its climax in year 2022, on January 15th, when it was 7 times more powerful than the eruption in December 20, 2021. So if that one is not counted for year 2021, one has
only 2 eruptions VEI ≥ 3 in 2021, which last happened in 1993. If one does count it, the number of VEI ≥ 3 is still relatively low (3), which last happened 2009 - which is interesting because
it was the end of the great recession that started at the end of 2007, beginning of 2008. Note that 1993 was also the end of a recession, albeit a smaller one. Years 1975 and 1976 both
had 2 VEI ≥ 3 eruptions, which was also the end of a great recession.
So the correlation with recessions is definitely still there, however, there are few years of low number of greater eruptions for which no global recession is reported. Thus, if the correlation is
real, it has probabilistic nature - perhaps only larger recessions should be considered.
Note that due to relativity in causality (predicted by CR) the recession may be either synchronized with the year of low number of big eruptions or may precede or succeed (follow) it, but it is
unclear how high this relativity is here - I haven't performed a detailed analysis.
If volcanism is, in long-term, increasing (as hypothesized), wars and depressions might attenuate the rise, but the longer these last, the higher may be the rate of increase in volcanism
afterwards.
UPDATE 2024.03.12
Apparently, the years 2022 and 2023 were extremely quiet regarding strong volcanic activity. In 2022, only one event of VEI = 3 was reported (none of VEI 4 or higher). In year 2023, there were no
events of magnitude ≥ 3 (unless, again, there is a significant lag in reporting). Since, at the same time, there was an increase in wars, this goes in the favour of the above hypothesis of deeper correlation between the two.
This low volcanic activity is now a stronger signal for the imminent stock market collapse and depression.
UPDATE 2024.04.08
Note that, apart from land volcanism (which may not be as strong), I have specifically predicted a larger increase in sea-floor volcanism, which should increase both ocean acidity and
ocean temperature. Although it may take some time for the evident increase in acidification near surface, this may not be so for temperature. Note also that the figures above mainly reflect
the volcanism on land, as most of the ocean floor (and, thus, the sea-floor volcanism) is uncharted.
Now, land and sea
surface temperatures have rapidly increased last year, while sea
ice extent in Antarctica was the lowest on record by a wide margin. The anomalies are described as being "off the charts".
This global rapid increase in temperature in 2023 cannot be explained by greenhouse gas emissions. It cannot be explained by the phase-out of sulphur in marine fuels in 2020, because any large impact on
climate would show up in 2021/2022 already, not suddenly in 2023. Similar is the case with Hunga Tonga eruption, any effect of which on climate should be relatively modest, the net effect
is probably even negligible considering
the amounts and distribution of the components that cool the planet (sulphur) and those that warm the planet (water vapour). Solar cycles are not the culprit either. Not only are all these
impacts on climate small, the expected changes in impact from 2022 to 2023 are miniscule. Even El Niño, which should impact 2024 temperatures, due to lingering global temperature impact
of La Niña in the first part of the year, was not expected to have a net effect on temperatures in 2023. And if it wasn't El Niño, what was it?
The only remaining explanation is the increased sea-floor geothermal activity (volcanism). If that is the case, this is obviously not a continuous process, rather occurring in bursts, possibly of
similar magnitude. Note that equally
rapid increase in temperature (0.29 °C) was detected in 1977. In 1976, temperature [relative to pre-industrial levels] was 0.15 °C, in 1977 it was 0.44 °C. In 2022, the temperature
was 1.15 °C, in 2023 it was 1.44 °C. The same amount of rise, 1 °C difference between the events, could we then expect the same jump at 2.15 °C, sometime in the period 2040-2045 (assuming climate stays on
the current trajectory)?
Do we have a satisfying explanation for the rapid rise in 1977? Again, the solar cycles and greenhouse gas emissions cannot explain it. The situation is even worse with sulphur and
volcanism. In 1976/1977 global sulphur emissions were still rising (producing a cooling effect). Some relatively
strong volcanism was present in years 1973-1976, there were 4 volcanoes with eruptions having a VEI of 4 (Chachadake [Tiatia], Fuego, Tolbachik, Augustine), but
this is 10 times weaker than the Hunga Tonga (VEI 5) eruption, and none of these eruptions included significant water vapour.
Note that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the global
climate entered a new regime in 1977, correlated also with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This suggests we probably have entered a new climate regime in 2023 as well. One could now argue that a rapid
change in ENSO is the reason of rapid temperature rise but what caused the shift in ENSO? ENSO links atmosphere with sea surface temperatures, but it is also linked with oceanic overturning
circulation and the deep ocean. With no rapid changes in the atmosphere, perhaps the trigger is in the deep ocean. Considering that regime changes seem to come after strong volcanic activity on
land (this was the case in 1977 and it was the case in 2023) perhaps this stronger volcanic activity is not limited to land, it occurs relatively simultaneously in deep ocean, perhaps even in
greater magnitude. In that case, this is not regular shallow tectonic activity, rather correlated with mantle plumes (characteristic for major extinctions).
UPDATE 2024.08.15
A recent study shows
that Hunga Tonga net effect was indeed very small. Also, the net radiative forcing was negative - producing cooling, rather than warming.
Update in Role in self-regulation.
Added chapter Role in self-regulation.
Role in self-regulation
If Earth is a self-regulating system in large part, volcanoes can certainly be utilized for the regulation of temperature. Due to short-term cooling effect, increase in volcanism can then be
interpreted as a response to increase in temperature.
Increasing greenhouse gases should thus be followed with increasingly massive eruptions and possibly a decline in mid-size and smaller eruptions - if temperature regulation is to continue.
The volcanic ejecta needs to reach the stratosphere for a significant cooling effect. As the troposphere warms it expands in height, making it harder for particles ejected in smaller eruptions
to reach the stratosphere.
Therefore, generally, smaller eruptions might be decreasing with the appearance of ultra-massive eruptions (due to long-term warming effect).
However, in case of major extinctions (when at least some life should be, per
the hypothesis, migrating
toward the mantle within a relatively short time-frame) this decrease is probably unlikely.
