23 2022.03.07 2022.04.14 2022.04.15 article Mario Ljubičić (amenoum.org)108. brigade ZNG 43, 35252 Sibinj, Croatiamljubicic99{EAT}gmail.com Evidence for increasing seismicity and volcanism. physics seismicity, volcanism, planetary neurogenesis https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6337719 /authors/Amenoum.html#credits 1 Increase in seismicity and volcanism: Apparent or real? Abstract Data is analysed for sings of increase in seismicity and volcanism, predicted by the theory of planetary neurogenesis. While apparent increase has existed for a long time, it was attributed to increase in documentation of such events and correlated with the growth of population, increasing coverage by instruments and development in reporting capability. However, with the most recent data included, analysis suggests the increase is, at least in part, real. Intro According to the theory of planetary neurogenesis - hypothesized in The Solar System: Nature and Mechanics and discussed in my other works, major mass extinctions (including the current one) should be accompanied by (or relatively synchronized with) increased global seismicity and volcanism. Here, available data will be analysed for signs of predicted increase in such activity. Human factor According to the Gaia hypothesis, Earth is a self-regulating complex system involving the biosphere, the atmosphere, the hydrospheres and the pedosphere (outermost layer of the Earth - soil mantle), tightly coupled as an evolving system. Although it's weaker forms are accepted today, the hypothesis that biota obeys a principle working to make Earth optimal or favourable for life, or that it works as a homeostatic mechanism, is still not generally accepted. However, this can be resolved with a more holistic approach - as the theory of planetary neurogenesis implies, the Earth should be analysed as a living being, a self-regulating complex system involving not only the outermost layers but all its constituent mass. In such system, not all of biota is working in favour of the whole (certainly, humans in general are apparently not) - some may be acting as diseases, disrupting its self-regulation. This system is, however, still in development, and may be interpreted as a precursor of a living being. Disruption of self-regulation is thus expected also in major feature formation and biomass transfer events - such as surface extinctions. Humans may be interpreted as cancer but cancer is also known to stimulate neurogenesis events, therefore, any increase in seismicity and volcanism attributed to humans probably should be interpreted as a precursor to (or a trigger of) stronger seismicity and volcanism associated with planetary neurogenesis. Evidence Earthquakes According to available data, there is no apparent global increase in earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 6, as shown in Fig. \fig1 (up to year 2017), and any apparent increase of earthquakes of lower magnitude is explained with increase in seismic instruments recording earthquakes.
Fig. \fig1: Cumulative annual number of stronger earthquakes (top) and colour-coded time-magnitude distribution However, there is a significant recent increase in earthquakes of lower magnitude, attributed to human activity (generally up to M4, but even stronger magnitudes may be induced), as shown in Fig. \fig2, for US. These are mostly linked to wastewater injection in deep disposal wells by oil industries.
Fig. \fig2: Cumulative number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or larger in the central and eastern United States, 1973–2020 Are these the precursors (or triggers from one perspective) of stronger earthquakes? The increase in number of stronger earthquakes may be already happening, albeit limited to particular region - again, as a precursor to global increase. Indeed, one candidate for that region is the country of Croatia, which I have already hypothesized to be the precursor region elsewhere. Data shows increasing frequency of strong earthquakes in Croatia since 1890 when most recent earthquakes are included. If Croatia is indeed the precursor region, the tipping point has likely passed and further development of neurogenesis events is unstoppable.
I am aware that, while I have provided logic, I have not provided the mechanism linking human induced earthquakes (in US or elsewhere) with recent strong earthquakes in Croatia, and precursor earthquakes in Croatia with global seismicity, but the theory implies such mechanism exists. One possibility is resonance induced amplification - tremors produced by humans are producing pressure waves of specific frequencies. A resonance at specific places in Earth would accumulate energy (ie. thermal expansion) which upon reaching a threshold could trigger another chain of events, including stronger earthquakes. As for planetary neurogenesis in general, it implies some large scale DNA code [precursor] equivalent exists. One of my hypotheses is that Earth is a large scale quantum system, or at least a quasi-quantum system. This implies entanglement of events in time (correlation of past and future, not causation), and superposition. I have hypothesized elsewhere that evolution on Earth is, to a significant degree, guided through mental pathways (I also hypothesize elsewhere that mental symbiosis of beings, such as in biofilms, is a precursor to a DNA coded organism), and the code connecting phenomena is thus hidden in time dimension. It is not yet encoded in large scale DNA sequences, as it is on small scale in individual quanta of evolution (ie. pulses of individual biotic life). Evolutions on adjacent vertical scales of energy, postulated in Complete Relativity (CR), are entangled. According to CR, to conserve relativity, relatively equivalent natural processes must occur at different scales of energy (generally separated in time, but connected through channels of entanglement on a 3rd scale), so this is simply how nature works. We cannot be aware of all mechanisms on all scales at all times - as proved in Quantum Mechanics (QM). One can perform many experiments on small scale and confirm many effects predicted by QM - but, one obviously cannot prove planetary neurogenesis in similar way. Is that a reason to ignore the predicted effect on large scale? Apart from logic, analysis of past events and current events on Earth are all that is available as evidence on Earth's scale - if the theory is correct, this civilization, as it is, has only one chance to accept whatever is available as evidence. I am not suggesting one to rely on faith, I'm merely suggesting it would be foolish to discard the available evidence because it cannot be further confirmed by growing and destroying billion Earths billion times in an [bio]accelerator.
Volcanoes Similar to earthquakes, the volcanism is apparently increasing globally but this has been so far correlated with population growth and largely explained with increasing probability for volcanic eruptions to be observed and documented - suggesting the apparent increase is not real.
Fig. \fig3: Number of volcanoes reported to have been active each year (black) and a 10-year running mean (red), from year 1800 to 2009. Lower lines show only stronger eruptions (≥ 0.1 km3 of tephra or magma) The lower plot of Fig. \fig3 is interpreted as a strong evidence that the historical trend in volcanism is more apparent than real. Here only the larger eruptions generating at least 0.1 km3 of tephra (VEI ≥ 4), the fragmental products of explosive eruptions, are plotted. The effects of these larger events are often regional, and therefore less likely to escape documentation even in remote areas.
Tephra is fragmental material produced by a volcanic eruption regardless of composition, fragment size, or emplacement mechanism. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is a scale that describes the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on magnitude and intensity. The numerical scale (from 0 to 8) is a logarithmic scale, and is generally analogous to the Richter and other magnitude scales for the size of earthquakes.
However, when the most recent data (1991 - 2021) is included, increase in stronger volcanism is evident too, as shown in Fig. \fig4.
Fig. \fig4: Number of strong volcanoes (VEI ≥ 4) reported to have been active each year (black) and a 10-year running mean (red), from year 1800 to 2021 (1800-1990 data source: Volcanoes of the World) Correlation with wars As shown in Fig. \fig3, there is a drop in reported active volcanoes during world-wide wars (WW I and WW II in the figure). The drop is considered to be apparent, but not real, explained by the priority in focus and documentation. During wars, documentation of volcanic eruptions has lower priority and some may be unreported, even though, with more observers in more remote areas during wars, more eruptions may be observed. But, how confident can we be that the drop is not real at all? If the Earth is a self-regulating system, the drop in volcanism may be, at least in part, real and more deeply correlated with wars. Both, wars and volcanism, can be associated with extreme destruction of structures and biomass. Sometimes, the military goal is to eliminate forest cover. For example, in Vietnam, 14-44 % of the forest was intentionally eliminated during the war, crops have been attacked in Syria, protected areas were set alight in Israel, etc. Greenhouse gas emissions and ash pollution are increased during the war, followed by the quiet period due to destroyed economy/biomass and then growth with rebuilding. This is equivalent to processes during and after volcanic eruptions. If deep correlation exists, drop in volcanic activity may even precede the world war. The very recent drop of activity, as shown in Fig. \fig4, might thus indicate the World War III is upon us. The recently started war in Ukraine goes in favour of that hypothesis. Furthermore, the year before the war (2021) was extremely quiet regarding volcanic activity, no events of VEI ≥ 3 were reported. The last time this has happened was in year 1927, just before the stock market collapse (1929) and ensuing Great Depression - when drop in volcanic activity was also recorded. If volcanism is, in long-term, increasing (as hypothesized), wars and depressions might attenuate the rise, but the longer these last, the higher will be the rate of increase in volcanism afterwards. Added chapter Role in self-regulation. Role in self-regulation If Earth is a self-regulating system in large part, volcanoes can certainly be utilized for the regulation of temperature. Due to short-term cooling effect, increase in volcanism can then be interpreted as a response to increase in temperature. Increasing greenhouse gases should thus be followed with increasingly massive eruptions and possibly a decline in mid-size and smaller eruptions.
The volcanic ejecta needs to reach the stratosphere for a significant cooling effect. As the troposphere warms it expands in height, making it harder for particles ejected in smaller eruptions to reach the stratosphere. Therefore, generally, smaller eruptions might be decreasing with the appearance of ultra-massive eruptions (due to long-term warming effect). However, in case of major extinctions (when life should be migrating toward the mantle within a relatively short time-frame) this decrease is unlikely.
Conclusion The analysis shows recent and real increase in earthquakes in US and weaker earthquakes globally, real increase in strong earthquakes in Croatia and likely real global increase in strong volcanism. Sure, increase in weaker earthquakes may be attributed to human activity, but anthropogenic influence likely should not be regarded as unnatural and it certainly can be linked to eventual increase in stronger earthquakes. Some might argue that real increase in strong volcanism may be short-term and a part of natural fluctuation. However, do we have the time to wait for statistical significance to increase significantly before we accept the hypothesis, or at least the possibility that it may be the correct interpretation of reality?