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B . L O G

[ 2021.12.20 ] Count on surprises
Log author: by Amenoum
Log date: 2021.12.20
It generally takes a lot of time for new theories to be accepted by mainstream science. And if nature doesn't behave as expected by old theories, there will be a lot of surprised scientists. And I'm sure you have noticed that, lately, scientists are more often surprised than not. Surprises might have the cause in hidden, unpredicted or unmeasurable variables by current theories, but, generally today, they are a consequence of uniformitarianism. While I can agree that physical laws (those that are actually correct - relative enough) can be invariant over all space and time of the observable universe, I find it frivolous to assume that rate of changes of anything is constant or cannot significantly deviate from currently observed rate. Man has been on this planet measuring these rates for infinitesimally small time and confined to infinitesimally small space in the observable universe. Yet, this man is convinced that:
  • evolution of Earth has been a slow, gradual process, punctuated by occasional natural catastrophic events occurring randomly,
  • slow incremental changes, such as erosion, brought about all the Earth's geological features,
  • all geological processes (such as erosion) throughout the past resembled those that can be observed today.
Slow, slow, slow - that is the mantra when it comes to geology. In my works, I have shown there is plenty of reason to believe that slow evolution is not only punctuated by catastrophic events, it is punctuated by pulses of fast evolution. In example, I have hypothesized that within 40 years the Antarctica will be ice free. But you don't have to believe me, just analyse the surprises in mainstream science. Researchers had previously estimated that the cluster in the Amundsen Sea region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would last for thousands of years despite global climate change. But in 2014, conclusion was that Thwaites Glacier will gradually melt, leading to an irreversible collapse over the next 200 to 1000 years. Now, newest studies show that the collapse of the glacier is likely only centuries away. In less than 10 years, prediction decreased from thousands of years to a couple of centuries. These are not the only surprises regarding climate, and it would actually be surprising if in 10 years (or less!) scientists wouldn't be surprised again. Collapse of the Thwaites will raise sea level by ≈65 cm, while melting of all Antarctica ice will raise sea level by ≈65 m. I see melting of Twhaites as a precursor of melting of whole Antarctica. I'm counting on hidden variables and I wouldn't be surprised if Thwaites is gone within 10 years (yes, I'm that crazy). While the rate of surprises is increasing globally, I cannot remember when was the last time I was surprised. You may believe in this or that, but, regardless of your religion, there's one thing you can surely count on - many more surprises to come. That is, for those who [still] think I'm crazy.