t generally takes a lot of time for new theories to be accepted by mainstream science. And if
nature doesn't behave as expected by old theories, there will be a lot of surprised scientists.
And I'm sure you have noticed that, lately, scientists are more often surprised than not.
Surprises might have the cause in hidden, unpredicted or unmeasurable variables by current
theories, but, generally today, they are a consequence of uniformitarianism.
While I can agree that physical laws (those that are actually correct - relative enough) can be
invariant over all space and time of the observable universe, I find it frivolous to assume that
rate of changes of anything is constant or cannot significantly deviate from currently observed
Man has been on this planet measuring these rates for infinitesimally
small time and
confined to infinitesimally
small space in the observable universe. Yet, this man is
- evolution of Earth has been a slow, gradual process, punctuated by occasional natural
catastrophic events occurring randomly,
- slow incremental changes, such as erosion, brought about all the Earth's geological features,
- all geological processes (such as erosion) throughout the past resembled those that can be
Slow, slow, slow - that is the mantra when it comes to geology.
In my works, I have shown there is plenty of reason to believe that slow evolution is not only
punctuated by catastrophic events, it is punctuated by pulses of fast evolution.
In example, I have hypothesized that within 40 years the Antarctica will be ice free.
But you don't have to believe me, just analyse the surprises in mainstream science.
Researchers had previously estimated that the cluster in the Amundsen Sea region of
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would last for thousands of years
despite global climate
change. But in 2014, conclusion
was that Thwaites Glacier will gradually melt, leading to an irreversible collapse over
the next 200 to 1000 years
Now, newest studies show that the
collapse of the glacier is likely only centuries away
In less than 10 years, prediction decreased from thousands of years to a couple of centuries.
These are not the only surprises regarding climate, and it would actually be surprising if
in 10 years (or less!) scientists wouldn't be surprised again.
Collapse of the Thwaites will raise sea level by ≈65 cm, while melting of all Antarctica ice
will raise sea level by ≈65 m. I see melting of Twhaites as a precursor of melting of whole
Antarctica. I'm counting on hidden variables and I wouldn't be surprised if Thwaites is gone
within 10 years (yes, I'm that crazy
While the rate of surprises is increasing globally, I cannot remember when was the last
time I was surprised.
You may believe in this or that, but, regardless of your religion, there's one thing you can
surely count on - many more surprises to come. That is, for those who [still] think I'm crazy.